The 2024 F1 driver line-up: Rumours, who’s likely to stay? Who's under pressure?
F1 silly season for 2024 could be an interesting one with some high-profile drivers wanting to rejoin the grid. Here’s what to expect for next season in terms of driver changes.
Red Bull
Max Verstappen - contract until the end of 2028
Sergio Perez - contract until the end of 2024
Unless there’s a complete deterioration in Verstappen’s relationship with Perez amid a titanic title battle, Red Bull will retain the same driver line-up for a fourth consecutive season.
Like Mercedes with Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas, it’s a partnership that works, particularly when you have a dominant car.
Verstappen remains F1’s top dog, while Perez has improved throughout his three years with Red Bull.
Ferrari
Charles Leclerc - contract until the end of 2024
Carlos Sainz - contracted until the end of 2024
Leclerc’s future with Ferrari has been a hot topic in the early races of F1 2023 given the team’s lacklustre start to the year.
The lightning-fast Monegasque has just one year left on his new deal.
With Ferrari no closer to putting together a credible title charge this year, 2024 is a big year for the team if they want to keep Leclerc.
Realistically, Ferrari can’t sign Verstappen or Hamilton, so they surely will want to keep Leclerc.
But will he want to stay?
Ultimately it depends on what happens with Hamilton - whether he signs a new deal and for how long.
It seems Sainz’s position within the team isn’t under threat despite generally being underwhelming since the start of last year.
While the Spaniard continues to be a clear step behind Leclerc, there are no obvious replacements - for now at least.
Mercedes
Lewis Hamilton - contract until the end of 2023
George Russell - multi-year deal
Hamilton’s contract situation continues to make the media headlines in 2023.
All signs are pointing towards the seven-time world champion signing a new deal to keep him with the team until 2025 at least.
There’s no reason why that won’t happen - Hamilton remains motivated to be in F1 despite Mercedes’ form, while Toto Wolff has reiterated his desire to keep him.
On the other side of the garage, Russell has done an amazing job since getting the promotion from Williams.
He will be at Mercedes for many years to come.
Alpine
Esteban Ocon - contract until end of 2024
Pierre Gasly - multi-year deal
Like a lot of the aforementioned teams, it’s unlikely there will be any serious movement at Alpine for 2024.
Ocon’s current deal comes to an end at the end of next year, while Gasly is on a multi-year deal - up until 2024 with an option for 2025.
While neither Ocon nor Gasly are quite at that elite level, it’s highly unlikely given Alpine’s stagnation they’d be able to upgrade either of them for someone like Lando Norris.
McLaren
Lando Norris - contract until the end of 2025
Oscar Piastri - contract until the end of 2024
McLaren CEO Zak Brown has hailed his F1 driver line-up of Norris and Piastri as one of the best on the grid.
He’s not wrong.
Norris has been one of F1’s star performers over the last couple of years with his dismantling of Daniel Ricciardo.
Piastri’s potential has been hidden by McLaren’s slow start to 2023.
Another team that’s very unlikely to see any changes for the next couple of years.
Aston Martin
Fernando Alonso - multi-year deal
Lance Stroll - rolling contract
Even at 41, Alonso is still performing close to the peak of his powers.
Making the most of a much-improved Aston Martin, Alonso has been sensational so far in 2023.
Given his and Aston Martin’s competitiveness, it’s highly likely he will be leading the team into 2025 at least.
Stroll will continue to drive for the team for as long as his father - Lawrence Stroll - says otherwise.
Alfa Romeo
Valtteri Bottas - multi-year deal
Zhou Guanyu - contract until the end of 2023
Bottas’ current deal with Alfa Romeo likely expires at the end of next year, while Zhou’s seat could be under threat.
The Chinese driver has improved significantly from his rookie season, often being a match for his more experienced teammate.
Alfa Romeo have Theo Pourchaire racing in F2 again - should the Frenchman take the title this year, the team may be tempted into a swap.
More realistically though is that Bottas and Zhou will remain for 2024, although with Audi’s involvement increasing year-on-year, they’ll be under pressure to perform ahead of the regulation changes.
AlphaTauri
Yuki Tsunoda - contract until the end of 2023
Nyck de Vries - contract until the end of 2023
Tsunoda’s future with the team looks safe with Red Bull very happy with the progress he’s shown in the first part of the season.
De Vries, however, is on borrowed time, with Helmut Marko already issuing him the ‘yellow card’.
Red Bull have several options for 2024 - or even in the middle of this year.
They could opt for Daniel Ricciardo - he would prove to be a good benchmark alongside Tsunoda while giving him the chance to impress other teams on the grid.
Liam Lawson has been impressive in Super Formula, while Juri Vips has been mooted as another option.
Haas
Kevin Magnussen - multi-year deal
Nico Hulkenberg - contract until the end of 2023
The two Haas drivers could be in line to be replaced at the end of the year.
Magnussen is in the second year of his multi-year deal with the team meaning that Haas might not take up the additional year option.
A second year with the team for Hulkenberg isn’t guaranteed, although his form certainly warrants it.
One option Haas could go for is Ricciardo.
Team boss Guenther Steiner openly expressed interest in the Australian during the middle of 2022 as they contemplated replacing Schumacher.
Ricciardo would be great for the team from a marketing point of view, and if he’s back to his best, he’d be a great addition to Haas.
Haas may choose to be loyal to Magnussen, while Hulkenberg - so far at least - has done enough to stay with the team.
Williams
Alex Albon - multi-year deal
Logan Sargeant - contract until the end of 2023
There’s no doubt Albon will remain with Williams in 2024.
He’s performed at a similar level similar to Russell across 2019-2021.
On the other hand, Sargeant has shown flashes of pace in his rookie season albeit without the standout results.
It’s a seat that’s under threat, particularly given reports that Mercedes boss Toto Wolff is keen to give Mick Schumacher an opportunity.
Given Wolff’s relationship with new team boss James Vowles, it could happen.
Crash.net’s predicted 2024 line-up
Taking this all into account, we’ve taken a punt on what the driver line-up for 2024 will be…
Red Bull: Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez
Ferrari: Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz
Mercedes: Lewis Hamilton and George Russell
Alpine: Esteban Ocon & Pierre Gasly
McLaren: Lando Norris & Oscar Piastri
Aston Martin: Fernando Alonso & Lance Stroll
Alfa Romeo: Valtteri Bottas & Zhou Guanyu
AlphaTauri: Yuki Tsunoda & Liam Lawson
Haas: Nico Hulkenberg & Daniel Ricciardo
Williams: Alex Albon & Mick Schumacher
